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"One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Product Details :

Genre Book : Political Science
Author Book : Nate Silver
Publisher : Penguin
Release Book : 2012-09-27
Download Book : 544 Pages
ISBN-10 : 9781101595954


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Magic will break your heart. Mexico City, 1988: Meche is fifteen, awkward, and obsessed with music. Her world revolves around her two misfit friends, Sebastian and Daniela, and a stack of records. Then Meche discovers how to turn music into magic, and things takes a turn for the strange... Mexico City, 2009: Meche returns home for her estranged father’s funeral. Her family are trouble enough, but when she runs into Sebastian, long-buried childhood memories resurface. What really happened back then – and is there any magic left?

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Genre Book : Fiction
Author Book : Silvia Moreno-Garcia
Publisher : Solaris
Release Book : 2015-02-10
Download Book : 272 Pages
ISBN-10 : 9781849978903


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A film director is dying of cancer. His greatest film would have told the story of a European village as the last hour of 999 AD approached—bringing Armageddon. Now that story will never be told. But he’s still working it out in his head, making a film that no one will ever see.

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Genre Book : Comics & Graphic Novels
Author Book : Neil Gaiman
Publisher : Dark Horse Comics
Release Book : 2016-11-30
Download Book : 96 Pages
ISBN-10 : 9781630089658


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So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver’s book. Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader. This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes: Historical context Chapter-by-chapter summaries Important quotes Fascinating trivia Glossary of terms Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the original work About The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver: Drawing on groundbreaking research, The Signal and the Noise, written by the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, examines how data has been used in prediction and forecasting, and how to find the true signals—the points that indicate that something will happen—amidst noisy and distracting data. Addressing different fields of forecasting and predictions—from politics to earthquakes to poker—Silver explores the reasons why some things are easier to forecast, like the weather, while others are so difficult, such as terrorism. From one of the country’s smartest thinkers. The Signal and the Noise provides vital insights into how to think about probability and predictions on the economy, climate change, sports, and other subjects that impact our lives. The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction.

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Genre Book : Study Aids
Author Book : Worth Books
Publisher : Open Road Media
Release Book : 2017-01-10
Download Book : 30 Pages
ISBN-10 : 9781504043694


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An indispensable guide for any recent graduate that provides simple, easy-to-follow rules for making smart personal finance choices during the first decade of one's career. • Demonstrates how simple choices, especially in the years after college, can guarantee (barring misfortunes such as catastrophic illness or drug addiction) a lifelong, healthy relationship with money • Illustrates how to apply the attitudes inherent in modesty, skepticism, and optimism to all financial decision-making, both upon graduating and in the future • Includes a math refresher for understanding the basic principles of interest rates, credit card debt, investment, and retirement savings • Demystifies without boring, simplifies without condescending to, and above all highlights the relevance and practical applications of financial planning during one's first ten years out of school

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Genre Book : Business & Economics
Author Book : Michael C Taylor
Publisher : ABC-CLIO
Release Book : 2018-04-12
Download Book : 209 Pages
ISBN-10 : 9781440861062


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Understanding the nature of random signals and noise is critically important for detecting signals and for reducing and minimizing the effects of noise in applications such as communications and control systems. Outlining a variety of techniques and explaining when and how to use them, Random Signals and Noise: A Mathematical Introduction focuses on applications and practical problem solving rather than probability theory. A Firm Foundation Before launching into the particulars of random signals and noise, the author outlines the elements of probability that are used throughout the book and includes an appendix on the relevant aspects of linear algebra. He offers a careful treatment of Lagrange multipliers and the Fourier transform, as well as the basics of stochastic processes, estimation, matched filtering, the Wiener-Khinchin theorem and its applications, the Schottky and Nyquist formulas, and physical sources of noise. Practical Tools for Modern Problems Along with these traditional topics, the book includes a chapter devoted to spread spectrum techniques. It also demonstrates the use of MATLAB® for solving complicated problems in a short amount of time while still building a sound knowledge of the underlying principles. A self-contained primer for solving real problems, Random Signals and Noise presents a complete set of tools and offers guidance on their effective application.

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Genre Book : Technology & Engineering
Author Book : Shlomo Engelberg
Publisher : CRC Press
Release Book : 2018-10-03
Download Book : 216 Pages
ISBN-10 : 9781420007770


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Product Details :

Genre Book : Human engineering
Author Book : United States. Department of Defense. Joint Services Steering Committee
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
Release Book : 1972
Download Book : 752 Pages
ISBN-10 : UOM:39015033744304


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Basic TV Technology is the essential basic guide to the fundamentals underlying all television and video systems, written for students and nontechnical professionals. You don't need to have a math or science background in order to understand this explanation of how the principal pieces of equipment work, what their functions are, and how they are integrated to form a complex video system. An understanding of this material will be necessary for you to succeed in the real world, where one person often has to perform many different roles and functions within a production. Armed with some basic technical background information, you'll be more effective at figuring out new applications and at problem-solving. The fourth edition of Basic TV Technology has been updated to reflect the industry shift to digital video and includes new information on compression, television standards, LCD displays, HD, and equipment. This book features the accessible Media Manual format, in which every topic is covered in two pages: one of explanatory text and one of figures. Need more information on TV technologies, go to: http://www.insightmedia.info/newsletters.php

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Genre Book : Performing Arts
Author Book : Robert L Hartwig
Publisher : CRC Press
Release Book : 2012-11-12
Download Book : 208 Pages
ISBN-10 : 9781136068140


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Time-Frequency Signal Analysis and Processing (TFSAP) is a collection of theory, techniques and algorithms used for the analysis and processing of non-stationary signals, as found in a wide range of applications including telecommunications, radar, and biomedical engineering. This book gives the university researcher and R&D engineer insights into how to use TFSAP methods to develop and implement the engineering application systems they require. New to this edition: New sections on Efficient and Fast Algorithms; a "Getting Started" chapter enabling readers to start using the algorithms on simulated and real examples with the TFSAP toolbox, compare the results with the ones presented in the book and then insert the algorithms in their own applications and adapt them as needed. Two new chapters and twenty three new sections, including updated references. New topics including: efficient algorithms for optimal TFDs (with source code), the enhanced spectrogram, time-frequency modelling, more mathematical foundations, the relationships between QTFDs and Wavelet Transforms, new advanced applications such as cognitive radio, watermarking, noise reduction in the time-frequency domain, algorithms for Time-Frequency Image Processing, and Time-Frequency applications in neuroscience (new chapter). A comprehensive tutorial introduction to Time-Frequency Signal Analysis and Processing (TFSAP), accessible to anyone who has taken a first course in signals Key advances in theory, methodology and algorithms, are concisely presented by some of the leading authorities on the respective topics Applications written by leading researchers showing how to use TFSAP methods

Product Details :

Genre Book : Computers
Author Book : Boualem Boashash
Publisher : Academic Press
Release Book : 2015-12-11
Download Book : 1056 Pages
ISBN-10 : 9780123985255


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Bayesian Estimation and classification. Hidden markov models. Wiener filters. Kalman and adaptive least squared error filters.

Product Details :

Genre Book : Technology & Engineering
Author Book : Saeed V. Vaseghi
Publisher : Vieweg+Teubner Verlag
Release Book : 1996-05
Download Book : 397 Pages
ISBN-10 : UCSD:31822023423569